NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 7 of the 2016-17 season show a very long-running show likely to run even longer.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||0.46|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.22||0.52|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.42||0.72|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.33||0.63|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.26||0.56|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.44||0.74|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.38||0.68|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.54||0.84|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.63||0.93|
|This Is Us||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.58||1.88|
“Law & Order: SVU” is in its 18th season, and its ratings are cruising along — within 5 percent of where the show was this time last season. It will hit 400 episodes sometime early next year. Assuming all relevant contracts can be worked out, it’s likely to return for a 19th season.
Which is as it should be. “SVU,” as much as any show this side of “The Simpsons,” has earned the right to say when it’s going to end its run. Whether that’s in 2018 or some future time remains to be seen, but that’s how it’s likely to happen.
The network canceled the original “Law & Order” without much warning back in 2010. Dick Wolf is again NBC’s most important producer, between “SVU” and the three, soon to be four, Chicago shows. It’s not likely to pull such a move on “SVU” in 2017.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.