The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 10 of the 2016-17 season don’t need the Third Season Rule to declare a show safe.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.36||0.16|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Frequency||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.31||0.11|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.31||0.11|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.62||0.42|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.67||0.47|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.67||0.47|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.38||0.18|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.81||0.61|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.90|
The Third Season Rule is in full effect for “Jane the Virgin” this season. It’s in the midst of its third full year on The CW and is produced (as are all CW shows) by network owners Warner Bros. and CBS.
Even without the rule, however, “Jane” would likely still be safe this season. Yes, it’s on the lower end of the network’s offerings this season. And yes, having a stronger lead-in (“Supergirl”) hasn’t helped the show any — its ratings are basically equal to what they were last season at this time, when it was building on “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend.”
This being The CW, and “Jane” being the first show to give the network any kind of legitimate chance at industry prestige via the awards circuit, it wasn’t going anywhere barring total collapse. That hasn’t happened, obviously.
All shows end, but the Bear won’t be making a date with “Jane” until at least 2018.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.