The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 16 of the 2016-17 season reiterate why the Bear approaches the network the way he does.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.37||0.17|
|Frequency||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.29||0.09|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.29||0.09|
|Legends of Tomorrow||Renewed||0.7||0.5|
|Jane the Virgin||Renewed||0.39||0.19|
The CW followed its by now-usual course of action over the weekend and renewed all seven veteran series that aired in the fall, from top show “The Flash” all the way down through “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend,” the lowest-rated series on the broadcast networks.
It’s why the Bear built in a presumption of renewal to the Renew/Cancel model for The CW, with no show going below tossup level barring extraordinarily low ratings. And in this case, even a 0.2 for “Crazy Ex” doesn’t qualify as “extraordinarily low.”
“Frequency” and “No Tomorrow,” which finish up in a couple weeks, will remain tossups pending the performance of “Riverdale” and some returning veterans. As noted earlier, The CW will also get to look at a couple months of Netflix data on the two shows before making a decision on their futures.
Programming note: Updated averages will be posted each week until new shows premiere in late January, but there will be no new predictions until then.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.