The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 16 of the 2016-17 season reiterate why the Bear approaches the network the way he does.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Vampire Diaries Final season 0.37 0.17
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend Renewed 0.2 0.0
Frequency 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.29 0.09
No Tomorrow 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.29 0.09
Legends of Tomorrow Renewed 0.7 0.5
Arrow Renewed 0.74 0.54
Supernatural Renewed 0.65 0.45
Jane the Virgin Renewed 0.39 0.19
Supergirl Renewed 0.85 0.65
The Flash Renewed 1.16 0.96


The CW followed its by now-usual course of action over the weekend and renewed all seven veteran series that aired in the fall, from top show “The Flash” all the way down through “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend,” the lowest-rated series on the broadcast networks.

It’s why the Bear built in a presumption of renewal to the Renew/Cancel model for The CW, with no show going below tossup level barring extraordinarily low ratings. And in this case, even a 0.2 for “Crazy Ex” doesn’t qualify as “extraordinarily low.”

“Frequency” and “No Tomorrow,” which finish up in a couple weeks, will remain tossups pending the performance of “Riverdale” and some returning veterans. As noted earlier, The CW will also get to look at a couple months of Netflix data on the two shows before making a decision on their futures.

Programming note: Updated averages will be posted each week until new shows premiere in late January, but there will be no new predictions until then.

Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.


DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017


The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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