Here are The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 19 of the 2018-19 season, and why a recent slew of announcements have greatly hurt the season 2 chances for one freshman drama.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend Final Season 0.13 0.03
Dynasty Renewed 0.18 0.08
DC’s Legends of Tomorrow Renewed 0.31 0.21
Charmed Renewed 0.31 0.21
Legacies Renewed 0.32 0.22
Black Lightning Renewed 0.33 0.23
Supergirl Renewed 0.40 0.30
Supernatural Renewed 0.42 0.32
Arrow Renewed 0.43 0.33
Riverdale Renewed 0.43 0.33
The Flash Renewed 0.68 0.58
All American 🐻 🐻 0.24 0.14
Roswell, New Mexico 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.37 0.27

 

In case you didn’t already know, in typical CW fashion, the network renewed 10 of its shows in one fell swoop during its TCA presentation last week, all of which the Bear had previously predicted as being likely renewals. The shows included all of the network’s veteran dramas (that are on the air right now), and all of its rookie series of the season… with the exception of two.

Considering “Roswell, New Mexico” only just premiered a few weeks ago, it didn’t come as much of a surprise that it wasn’t included in the network’s slew of renewals last week – even despite its solid ratings performance up to this point.

The same consideration cannot, however, be granted to “All American.” The high school drama was the network’s only fall freshman series not to be included in the announcement, so along with its low ratings performance so far this season, the past week has essentially secured “All American’s” place as a likely cancellation.

Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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