The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 18 of the 2016-17 season are below.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.36||0.16|
|Frequency||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.28||0.08|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.28||0.08|
|Riverdale||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.5||0.3|
|Legends of Tomorrow||Renewed||0.69||0.49|
|Jane the Virgin||Renewed||0.39||0.19|
Let’s have a refresher on how the Bear handles CW predictions, shall we?
Since the network has a habit of renewing nearly all of its shows, the Bear doesn’t put anything lower than a tossup barring outright disaster. It’s why the now-completed “Frequency” and “No Tomorrow” remain there, and it’s why “Riverdale” starts there despite an underwhelming premiere.
“Riverdale’s” 0.5 rating for its first episode is in line with those of “Frequency” (0.4) and “No Tomorrow” (0.5) in a soft year for CW freshmen. “Riverdale” may have a somewhat better chance of holding onto that number, given the critical support it’s getting and the train of hype that preceded it.
The show also comes from The CW’s most important producer, Berlanti Productions, which is also behind the network’s four DC Comics series. “Riverdale” starts as a tossup until more numbers come in, but if any freshman show survives on The CW this season, this is the most likely candidate.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.