Cancel Bear vs. The CW, week 20: How the Bear learned to stop worrying and accept ‘Crazy Ex-Girlfriend’

Here are The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 20 of the 2017-18 season.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Valor 🐻 🐻 0.22 0.02
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.2 0.0
Jane the Virgin 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.26 0.06
Dynasty 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.22 0.02
Arrow 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.49 0.29
Supernatural 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.6 0.4
Riverdale 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.55 0.35
Supergirl 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.55 0.35
Legends of Tomorrow 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.56 0.36
Black Lightning 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.70 0.50
The Flash 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.88 0.68

 

“Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” has Third Season Rule protection this season, so its renewal for 2018-19 is more or less a fait accompli. If a CW show makes it out of Season 1, the pattern is generally that it will get four years.

What’s remarkable about “Crazy Ex” is that in each of its first two seasons, it has been at the very bottom of the rankings — tying for last place in adults 18-49 and dead last in viewers. The lowest-rated show on TV almost never gets a second season, let alone a third and (probably) fourth.

This reality threw the Bear a bit at first, as he predicted a likely cancellation in the show’s first season and had it as a tossup last year. Now? With the Third Season Rule in effect and The CW’s renewal record, the Bear is comfortable in the knowledge he won’t be seeing “Crazy Ex” at his table for at least another year.

Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.