The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 26 of the 2016-17 season welcome a veteran show to the index for the first time this season.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.38||0.18|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻||0.28||0.08|
|The Originals||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.3||0.1|
|Legends of Tomorrow||Renewed||0.66||0.46|
|Jane the Virgin||Renewed||0.37||0.17|
With only one episode under its belt this season, “The Originals” starts where all CW shows start on the Renew/Cancel Index, as a tossup.
If the show stays consistent at that level, the fact that it’s airing on Fridays will probably earn it another season. The CW also isn’t in the habit of canceling veteran shows without first announcing a final season.
Still, the Bear is holding off on moving it up until there’s more data on the show.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.