Here are The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 3 of the 2017-18 season. A new show is a likely pickup, ratings or no.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Valor||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.3||0.1|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.3||0.1|
|Dynasty||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.3||0.1|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.6||0.4|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.7||0.5|
|Riverdale||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.8||0.6|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.5||0.3|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.6||0.4|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.9|
“Dynasty” opened to meager ratings last week. It lost more than half of its lead-in audience from “Riverdale” and finished with just a 0.3 rating among adults 18-49.
On another network, that’s disastrous. On The CW, with this particular property, it simply doesn’t matter. Let Les Moonves, the head of CW part-owner (and “Dynasty” producer) CBS Corp., explain why:
“A great recent example of the power of owning content is the new version of Dynasty that will premiere this fall on The CW. We own 100 percent of the show, and we’ve already licensed it to Netflix in 188 countries. … So this means ‘Dynasty’ is profitable before it even hits the air.”
That’s from CBS’ second-quarter earnings call in August. The Bear builds in The CW’s bias toward renewal in his predictions anyway, but this is as explicit a statement about the network’s lack of reliance on traditional ratings as we’ve ever seen. Barring “Dynasty’s” ratings falling to almost literally nothing here, it’s hard to see it being canceled.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.