The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 3 of the 2016-17 season feature a couple of new shows getting off to sluggish starts.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the new methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Vampire Diaries Final season n/a n/a
Frequency 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.4 0.2
No Tomorrow 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.5 0.3
Arrow 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.7 0.5
The Flash 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 1.1
Jane the Virgin 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 n/a n/a

 

“Frequency” didn’t have a great start. The series, based on the 2000 movie, had the weakest ratings on The CW last week as the network began rolling out its lineup. Its 0.4 in adults 18-49 was just a tenth better than “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend’s” start last season.

But it’s The CW, so short of falling off a cliff, “Frequency” can probably survive those numbers. Its network has renewed all but one of its scripted shows in each of the past two seasons, so the Bear is baking a presumption of renewal into predictions for The CW this season.

New shows like “Frequency” and the slightly better-performing “No Tomorrow” will start as tossups until some more data can come in. But barring disaster they won’t likely go below it.

“Jane the Virgin” doesn’t premiere until Oct. 17, but it’s a lock for renewal thanks to the Third Season Rule.

Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
😥 sure bet to be canceled by May 2016
😦 😦 likely to be canceled by May 2016
😐 😐 😐 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 likely to be renewed by May 2016
😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 sure bet to be renewed by May 2016

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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