The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 32 of the 2016-17 season are pretty well set.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.38||0.18|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻||0.28||0.08|
|The Originals||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.33||0.13|
|iZombie||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.33||0.13|
|Legends of Tomorrow||Renewed||0.64||0.44|
|Jane the Virgin||Renewed||0.35||0.15|
Neither “The Originals” nor “iZombie” will be done with their seasons before The CW announces its lineup for next season. Nonetheless, the Bear still believes both will make it back in 2017-18.
The same can’t be said for “No Tomorrow” and “Frequency,” both of which are very likely one and done.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.