Here are The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2017-18 season, which are skeptical of one show’s chances.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Valor||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.25||0.05|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.25||0.05|
|Dynasty||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.3||0.1|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.55||0.35|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.7||0.5|
|Riverdale||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.7||0.5|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.5||0.3|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.55||0.35|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.8|
It is safe to say that the broadcast networks’ collective bet on military dramas this season hasn’t really panned out. “SEAL Team” is doing fine for CBS, “The Brave” is plodding on NBC.
Then there’s “Valor,” which after two weeks is tied for eighth in The CW’s ratings. Out of 10 shows.
Network head Mark Pedowitz has said many times that he’d been looking for a military show for The CW, and that may help “Valor” in the short term. The CW’s renewal bias compels the Bear to leave the show as a tossup for the moment, pending more data.
But “Valor” is already running behind “Frequency” and “No Tomorrow” from last season. A few more weak performances will earn it a discharge.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.