The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 5 of the 2016-17 season wonder how far the network’s tendency to renew most everything can stretch.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.4||0.2|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Frequency||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.33||0.13|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.33||0.13|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.65||0.45|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.67||0.47|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.7||0.5|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.4||0.2|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.8|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.9|
In the past couple seasons The CW has scarcely met a show it didn’t like, renewing all but two scripted shows over that time period.
“No Tomorrow” may prove to be a test case for just how far that philosophy will stretch. Its numbers thus far are on par with those of “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” last season — it’s just above a 0.3 in adults 18-49 through three episodes.
But airing after “The Flash,” in arguably the most valuable place on the network’s schedule, that meager number looks even worse. It’s losing an eye-popping 71 percent of its lead-in, an unsustainable figure over the long haul.
The Bear is sticking with a presumption of renewal for CW shows for the time being, so “No Tomorrow” won’t go below tossup status right now. Whether that lasts remains to be seen.
The decision to place a fairly sunny rom-com after “The Flash” is one of several questionable scheduling moves on a broadcast network — not just The CW — this season. Granted, when nearly half your roster is comic-book shows, there aren’t a ton of places to put a show. But the drop-off is glaring, and one that even The CW will have to take a hard look at before next season.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.