Here are The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 5 of the 2017-18 season, which upgrade a show to certain renewal.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Valor||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.23||0.03|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.25||0.05|
|Dynasty||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.25||0.05|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.53||0.33|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.65||0.45|
|Riverdale||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.65||0.45|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.5||0.3|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.5||0.3|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.73|
It’s that time of year again, where the Bear acknowledges that he won’t be seeing “Supernatural” in his lair this season.
We all know the drill by now: This show will end whenever its producers, The CW and stars Jensen Ackles and Jared Padalecki decide together to hang it up. That’s not likely to be this season, not when “Supernatural” is tied for the second-best ratings on the network so far.
There’s perhaps some remote chance that Ackles or Padalecki will, say, decide to go to grad school or something. That’s the only reason the Bear is leaving the show as a likely renewal. But you can expect to see it locked in at some point later in the season.
Whenever the show does end, you can also expect to see The CW make a very big deal of it. There’s almost zero chance the network lets its longest-running series end with no fanfare.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.