The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 6 of the 2016-17 season revisits a show with the network’s lowest ratings.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.35||0.15|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Frequency||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.33||0.13|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.33||0.13|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.63||0.43|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.68||0.48|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.67||0.47|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.4||0.2|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.73|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.90|
Follow-up question to the one in the headline: Will Mark — CW head Mark Pedowitz — care?
Look, “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” was the lowest-rated show on broadcast TV last season, and yet here it is in Season 2. Since moving to Friday, it hasn’t dropped all that much from its Monday average last season, averaging a 0.2 over its first two episodes (vs. 0.29 last season).
Yes, “Crazy Ex” is at replacement level, but it probably also represents as good a chance as any for The CW to get some awards recognition that Pedowitz clearly craves. The Bear makes a presumption of renewal for The CW, which means that barring extraordinary circumstances nothing goes below tossup level.
That’s where “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” is right now, and that’s where it’s likely to stay for a while unless a large number of people suddenly start staying home on Fridays to watch TV, or the core audience for the show abandons it. Neither of those things is too likely to happen.
All of which is to say it’s about a 50-50 bet that “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” will get to pull off the rare feat of being the lowest-rated network show two years running.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.