The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 7 of the 2016-17 season locks in a long-running show for next season.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.37||0.17|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Frequency||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.32||0.12|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.32||0.12|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.63||0.43|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.66||0.46|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.68||0.48|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.4||0.2|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.65|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.08||0.88|
The line about “Supernatural” from The CW has long been, “As long as the two leads are happy, we’ll keep going.”
There’s no sign that either Jensen Ackles or Jared Padalecki is ready to call it quits, and with the two of them already having contracts in place for a 13th season, the Bear is ready to move the show into lock territory.
Not that it was ever on shaky ground. No one at the network seems to want to let go of the last holdover from the WB/UPN days, and the show is still performing pretty well by CW standards. Its 18-49 ratings through four episodes are down about a tenth of a point vs. the same period last year, but its standing relative to its CW brethren has actually improved: “Supernatural” is the No. 3 show on the network thus far after finishing fourth among CW shows last season.
All shows end, but the Bear probably won’t be seeing “Supernatural” at his table for a while yet.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.