The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 8 of the 2016-17 season give a second-year show a good chance despite a shorter-than-usual run.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Vampire Diaries Final season 0.38 0.18
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.2 0.0
Frequency 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.32 0.12
No Tomorrow 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.32 0.12
Legends of Tomorrow 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.62 0.42
Arrow 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.67 0.47
Supernatural 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.66 0.46
Jane the Virgin 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.4 0.2
Supergirl 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.82 0.62
The Flash 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.08 0.88

 

“Legends of Tomorrow” was extended for just four more episodes on The CW this season. Om a Big 4 network, that coupled with somewhat lower ratings might be cause for alarm. On The CW? It’s fine.

“Legends” is currently the network’s No. 5-rated show, which puts it squarely in the middle of the pack. That’s not the whole story, however: The show is more than two tenths of a point ahead of the No. 6 show on The CW, the departing “Vampire Diaries,” and within a few hundredths of the third-ranked show, “Arrow.”

Plus, we’re talking about The CW, where renewals are a way of life. Yes, “Legends” isn’t cheap, which is probably high on the list of reasons it didn’t get more than 17 episodes this season. But the show is still a safe bet to get a third year.

Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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