The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 8 of the 2016-17 season give a second-year show a good chance despite a shorter-than-usual run.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.38||0.18|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Frequency||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.32||0.12|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.32||0.12|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.62||0.42|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.67||0.47|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.66||0.46|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.4||0.2|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.82||0.62|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.08||0.88|
“Legends of Tomorrow” was extended for just four more episodes on The CW this season. Om a Big 4 network, that coupled with somewhat lower ratings might be cause for alarm. On The CW? It’s fine.
“Legends” is currently the network’s No. 5-rated show, which puts it squarely in the middle of the pack. That’s not the whole story, however: The show is more than two tenths of a point ahead of the No. 6 show on The CW, the departing “Vampire Diaries,” and within a few hundredths of the third-ranked show, “Arrow.”
Plus, we’re talking about The CW, where renewals are a way of life. Yes, “Legends” isn’t cheap, which is probably high on the list of reasons it didn’t get more than 17 episodes this season. But the show is still a safe bet to get a third year.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.