The CW’s renew/cancel standings for week 9 of the 2016-17 season see a cornerstone of the network starting to decline.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Vampire Diaries||Final season||0.36||0.16|
|Crazy Ex-Girlfriend||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.2||0.0|
|Frequency||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.31||0.11|
|No Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.32||0.12|
|Legends of Tomorrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.62||0.42|
|Arrow||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.67||0.47|
|Supernatural||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.67||0.47|
|Jane the Virgin||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.38||0.18|
|Supergirl||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.80||0.60|
|The Flash||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.90|
As the Bear has said numerous times now, he has built in a presumption of renewal for predictions on CW shows. The network has renewed nearly all but one scripted show in each of the past two seasons, so it just seems logical to proceed that way.
That’s good news for “Arrow,” because the show is on a pretty sizable downward slide this season.
It’s tied for No. 3 on the network with “Supernatural,” but “Arrow” has declined markedly. Its 18-49 ratings are down 33 percent vs. last season to this point, and it’s fallen at a faster pace than the rest of The CW: The network’s average is running about 14 percent behind last season.
On a Big 4 network, a veteran show that lost a third of its 18-49 rating in a season would be on the chopping block. “Arrow” isn’t there yet, but if its declines continue, The CW may start thinking about bringing the show to a close in the relatively near future.
Note: All of The CW’s shows are produced by network owners CBS and Warner Bros., so the (O) designation (see below) is immaterial.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. There is little variance for The CW on Friday, so the multiplier is not used.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.