Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCBSShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2-22, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|How To Be A Gentleman *||canceled||0.74|
|A Gifted Man (F)||😳||0.43|
|CSI:NY (F)||😥 😥||0.54|
|Blue Bloods (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.56|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.73|
|CSI: Miami||😐 😐 😐||0.81|
|CSI||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.87|
|Hawaii Five-0||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.88|
|The Mentalist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.88|
|Person Of Interest||0.99|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.05|
|Mike & Molly||1.18|
|Rob||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.18|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.29|
|2 Broke Girls||1.40|
|Two And A Half Men||1.41|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.64|
|Rules of Engagement||😐 😐 😐 **|
In a typical season, CBS premieres 3 new dramas and 2 new sitcoms each Fall. That usually demands they cancel the same number from their existing schedule. Last season, tricky folks that they are, they only cancelled two dramas from their Fall schedule (Medium, The Defenders) because they reduced their unscripted Fall schedule by an hour when they held back Undercover Boss until the spring. That trick isn’t available a second year in a row though, and three dramas from their existing schedule are likely to be canceled. But which ones?
A Gifted Man is certain to be canceled, its ratings are well below all other CBS dramas. Past that, Unforgettable is a likely, but not certain, candidate for the second cancellation.
It’s that third cancellation among CBS dramas that leaves me, and most others, puzzled.
Since Person Of Interest is certain to be renewed, a veteran drama will have to hit the discard pile.
My prediction, but it’s a shaky one, is that it’ll be CSI: NY, but CSI: Miami wouldn’t surprise me a bit. CSI or The Good Wife being canceled this season would surprise me. Any other drama being canceled would shock me.
Those taking the ostrich approach will suggest CBS doing time sharing, Saturday drama originals, or perhaps enlarging the 24 hour day. I anticipate being amused by the comments to that effect.
How about you? Which CBS dramas do you anticipate being canceled? (choose up to three)*
* Spring drama premiere The 2-2 isn’t in the poll. I may do another poll after it premieres. Had I included it, you’d need to choose four shows to follow typical CBS pattern. I included every CBS drama currently on the schedule including those certain to be renewed. Freedom of choice, baby!
Last week I wondered whether Rob, which started well, might take the same ratings path to cancellation as $#*! My Dad Says did last season. In its second episode, Rob ratings declined 15%, SMDS declined 17% in its second episode. Stay tuned.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did CBS’ shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule, and are grouped at the top of the table.
** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.