Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCBSShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from September 15-November 9, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.58|
|Blue Bloods (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.60|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.68|
|Madam Secretary||😐 😐 😐||0.77|
|The McCarthys||😥 😥||0.78|
|Person Of Interest||0.81|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||0.82|
|Stalker||😐 😐 😐||0.83|
|Two And A Half Men||final season||1.10|
|2 Broke Girls||1.13|
|NCIS: New Orleans||1.14|
|The Big Bang Theory||already renewed||2.31|
|The Mentalist||final season|
As the cancellation bear covered earlier, this looks to be the season he finally catches original recipe CSI. It’s conceivably possible that three of four CBS Fall drama rookies will be renewed, and looking certain at least two will be. Add to that the fact that two more rookie dramas (CSI: Cyber, Battle Creek) are yet to premiere, and one veteran CBS drama being devoured by the bear isn’t likely to be enough to make room in next Fall’s CBS schedule.
Those other CBS veteran dramas (The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods) all have similarly low ratings, and the difference between their ratings is so small as to be irrelevant to their futures. CBS isn’t keeping any of them on their schedule because of their ad revenue, but because they make CBS Studios money in the lucrative syndication market.
It’s likely that which one(s) of those get canceled next will be determined entirely on the basis of their individual syndication deals. Which one is more lucrative on a per episode basis? Which deal includes more episodes yet to be produced? Either could cause CBS to keep one low rated drama over another. Unfortunately, the bear doesn’t know the answers to those questions. Absent an obvious cancellation tell from CBS (like trimming the episode order for CSI) he’ll be reduced to a little better than random guess.
Could another veteran drama (NCIS, NCIS:LA, Person Of Interest) be canceled? The bear doubts it, even though POI is the only veteran drama left that isn’t produced by CBS. CBS rarely cancels veteran dramas not airing on Sunday or Friday. And there is no chance whatsoever that Elementary is canceled before a season four.
The observant will note that the bear has moved his prediction for Stalker down to a “toss up” for cancellation or renewal. Particularly with two rookie dramas yet to premiere, its ratings no longer tilt it towards renewal.
Is this finally the year that the bear catches CSI? He thinks so.
How is The Millers already certain to be renewed? Read this.
How is Elementary already certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
While we wait for the return of Bubble Watch, here are some CBS notes from Tom Shaw:
The McCarthys dropped a roughly average 12% in Week 2; that still leaves it as CBS’ worst rated comedy. Yet (as of this writing) it still hasn’t been canceled. We’re getting late enough into November where there may not be any more cancellation announcements; instead, The McCarthys, Red Band Society, Cristela, etc. will just be replaced on the Spring schedules.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.