Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCBSShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – January 4, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.92|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.99|
|Blue Bloods (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.99|
|Madam Secretary||😐 😐 😐||0.99|
|Mike & Molly||1.27|
|The Mentalist||final season|
|Person Of Interest||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂|
|2 Broke Girls|
|Two And A Half Men||final season|
|NCIS: New Orleans|
|The Big Bang Theory||already renewed|
The past three seasons yielded only 2 surviving rookie dramas for CBS (Elementary, Person of Interest), and yet CBS had four this Fall that did reasonably well. Two are certain to be renewed, and three renewed is somewhat possible. Plus, there are two more rookie dramas yet to premiere (CSI: Cyber, Battle Creek).
The dearth of successful rookies over the past several seasons has lulled CBS veteran drama fans into a false sense of security. Just three veteran dramas total have left CBS’ schedule during the previous three seasons (CSI:NY, CSI: Miami), not counting this season’s “renew and cancel” final season for The Mentalist.
Rookie shows that survive mean that veterans must be canceled to make room for new dramas (completely obvious, but surprisingly not recognized by many blindered fans).
To fit new dramas into next season’s schedule CBS could “renew and cancel” one or more of its veterans with a squeezed in during the holidays final season (like, The Mentalist), premiere fewer than three new dramas next fall (like they did in 2013-14), cut out an hour of sitcoms, or keep one of their reality hours out of the Fall schedule.
Given that list of CBS hedging options, the cancellation bear is going to guess that however many rookie dramas are renewed, one fewer veteran drama will be canceled (i.e. three rookies renewed = two veterans canceled, not counting The Mentalist).
The bear’s already made the easiest of the veteran drama cancellation calls (CSI), he’s leaning toward Hawaii Five-0 as the second. If CBS seems like they might renew four rookie dramas, the bear will likely be flipping coins among any others.
Why is Stalker now likely to be canceled? Read this.
How can The McCarthys be certain to be canceled when it got more episodes ordered? Read this.
Is this finally the year that the bear catches CSI? He thinks so.
How is Elementary certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
Here are some notes from Bubble Watch’s Tom Shaw:Nothing new from Tom this week.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.