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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – March 2, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.63|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F)||0.67|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.68|
|The Mentalist||😥 😥||0.72|
|We Are Men*||canceled||0.74|
|Person Of Interest||0.84|
|The Crazy Ones||😐 😐 😐||0.84|
|Mom||😐 😐 😐||0.92|
|Two And A Half Men||😐 😐 😐||0.93|
|Mike & Molly||1.01|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.06|
|2 Broke Girls||1.18|
|How I Met Your Mother||final season||1.47|
|The Big Bang Theory||2.25|
The cancellation bear moved three CBS sitcoms to “toss up” between cancellation and renewal a few weeks ago, and this week Mom makes the headline.
Until the Olympics, Mom’s ratings lagged The Crazy Ones. Last week after The Voice returned on Monday, and The Crazy Ones moved to 9:30 their ratings were tied. It will be interesting to see how they shake out going forward. The bear doesn’t think there’s any chance both shows get canceled, and there’s a small chance that both get renewed.
If Two And A Half Men can maintain its relative ratings from last week in its new 9pm time slot, its prediction will be moved up to “likely to be renewed”. However, as the bear has noted in the past, old expensive shows with OK ratings exist in a prediction blind spot of the bear’s. They’ve been canceled before when they’ve crossed an expense threshold that’s invisible to the bear.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.