Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCBSShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from September 15-November 16, 2014):

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Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.56
Hawaii Five-0 (F) 😐 😐 😐 0.59
Blue Bloods (F) 😐 😐 😐 0.61
CSI 😥 😥 0.66
The Good Wife 😐 😐 😐 0.68
The McCarthys 😥 😥 0.76
Madam Secretary 😐 😐 😐 0.78
Person Of Interest 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.79
NCIS: Los Angeles 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.81
Stalker 😐 😐 😐 0.82
The Millers canceled 0.85
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
Two And A Half Men final season 1.09
NCIS: New Orleans :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
Mom :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
Scorpion :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
The Big Bang Theory already renewed 2.33
The Mentalist final season

Through week 5,  Stalker was CBS’s #1 rated 10pm drama, but its ratings have fallen a tenth of a point each week since then, and it’s now back in the pack. That trend is not its friend, but it’s still doing passably for  a rookie 10pm show. The cancellation bear no longer judges it likely to be renewed pending the CBS spring drama premieres, he’s moved it to a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation.

The bear’s first swing and a miss (and certainly not last) on a prediction this season happened last week as The Millers, which the bear was sure to be renewed through at least season four was canceled by CBS. It is pretty unusual to cancel a sophomore show averaging 85% of your network’s ratings average off the schedule after 4 episodes. In retrospect, it seems the scheduling decision that moved it from Thursday after The Big Bang Theory to Monday was far more of a negative future signal for the show than the bear guessed. He didn’t follow his own advice, “Ignore what the networks say, pay attention to only what they do”.

Previous weeks:

Is this finally the year that the bear catches CSI? He thinks so.

How is Elementary already certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.

While we wait for the return of Bubble Watch, here are some CBS notes from Tom Shaw:

The Millers was canceled by CBS this week, in the first shocker of the season. Granted, The Millers‘ ratings were always all The Big Bang Theorylead-in; why CBS felt they had to do this now, and get the show off the Spring schedule, is the more relevant question. It’s possible CBS thought the chance to turn Mom into a top-of-the-hour anchor (with further The Big Bang Theory lead-ins) outweighed the syndication possibilities of The Millers; it’s also possible CBS figured The Big Bang Theory was better used on a new CBS-owned property (The Odd Couple) than a known failure.
One explanation that doesn’t make sense to me is that CBS did this to protect Scorpion. While, again, you should view Scorpion as CBS’ favorite and most-protected non-spinoff, and The Millers has been doing Scorpion‘s ratings no favors, that’s a recipe for moving The Millers (to, say, Thursday @ 9:30), not killing it. Unless CBS internally considers The Millers so toxic it can no longer be used as a lead-in to anything
My big takeaway? The Millers was in the perfect position to serve the Rules of Engagement / Mike & Molly role of spackle in waiting for the next two seasons and net CBS whatever syndication money it could, and yet it still was canceled. There’s no money left in the spackle business.


Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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