Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCBSShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from September 15-December 7, 2014):

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Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.58
Hawaii Five-0 (F) 😐 😐 😐 0.62
Blue Bloods (F) 😐 😐 😐 0.63
CSI 😥 😥 0.68
The Mentalist final season 0.69
The Good Wife 😐 😐 😐 0.71
The McCarthys 😳 0.73
Madam Secretary 😐 😐 😐 0.82
Person Of Interest 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.83
The Millers* canceled 0.83
Stalker 😥 😥 0.84
NCIS: Los Angeles 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.84
Two And A Half Men final season 1.04
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Mom :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
NCIS: New Orleans :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Scorpion :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
The Big Bang Theory already renewed 2.38


After being a “toss up” for most of the season, Stalker is now likely to be canceled. CBS announced that it would be replaced by CSI:Cyber after airing only 17 of its 20 episodes ordered.

The fact that only 20 episodes were ordered (not the 22 in a “normal” full season order) is a another negative indicator that as far as the bear knows was only revealed last Friday. Looks like the CBS PR Jedi put a mind trick over on the bear in late October when they announced the “full season” for Stalker and the bear assumed it was for 22, otherwise he’d have moved it to “likely canceled” then. “This is not the full season order episode count you were looking for. Move along. Move along.”

Previous weeks:

How can The McCarthys be certain to be canceled when it got more episodes ordered? Read this.

Is this finally the year that the bear catches CSI? He thinks so.

How is Elementary already certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.

While we wait for the return of Bubble Watch, here are some CBS notes from Tom Shaw:

CBS announced their Spring schedule; as usual, there’s a lot of hints of the internal hopes for their shows hidden in there.

The biggest question for CBS’ Spring schedule was whether Mom or The Odd Couple would get The Big Bang Theory as a lead-in for Spring. CBS has attempted to split the difference – when Two and a Half Men ends on February 19th, The Odd Couple will get first-run Big Bang Theorys for a lead-in at 8:30, while Mom will get Big Bang Theory repeats for a lead-in at 9:30.
On one hand, The Big Bang Theory and Big Bang Theory repeats are the strongest comedy lead-ins the network has; on the other hand, repeats taking a regular timeslot (on CBS!) shows how reality has caught up with the network.

(Note: even if every comedy airing in March gets renewed, with The Millers dead, Two and a Half Men ending, and The McCarthys effectively dead, CBS will still be down comedy hours going into next season.)

I wasn’t expecting Stalker to get a backorder; now we find out that the backorder was only for 7, not 9, episodes, and that it will be taken off the schedule before all its episodes air. Either one of those would set alarm bells ringing; the combination may as well file the Missing Persons Report as of February 26th.

Battle Creek premieres on Sunday, March 1st. So far this season, Elementary has recorded a (for CBS) jaw-droppingly bad 1.1 average, on the highest ad rate night of the week… and CBS would prefer that continues to air on Thursday than Battle Creek. That’s not encouraging for Battle Creek, to be blunt.

CSI: Cyber premieres on Wednesday, March 4th. On one hand, that means it entirely misses February sweeps (not a good sign); on the other hand, it’s not starting off in the CBS retirement home of Sundays. This smells like a case where it comes down to how many Friday/Sunday shows don’t get renewed, unless the ratings are really notable in one direction of the other.


Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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