CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 1 of the 2016-17 season includes several solid starts for new shows, including one that surpassed expectations on Friday night.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the new methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Blue Bloods (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.3||0.78|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.91|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.5||0.8|
|MacGyver (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.7||1.3|
|Bull (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.2||1.5|
|Kevin Can Wait (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.6||1.9|
|The Big Bang Theory||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||3.8||3.1|
|NCIS: New Orleans (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.7|
A 1.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 is nothing to sneeze at on any night of the week. To put that kind of number up on Friday is a pretty rare thing.
But “MacGyver” did just that with its series premiere, and so it begins the season as a likely renewal. It’s just week 1, obviously, so there’s a lot more time to see where the show really lands. But it’s unquestionably in a good place right now.
The Bear is going to take a cautious approach to predictions until there’s more data in — which is also why “MacGyver” only has four bears next to its name rather than five. (“NCIS: New Orleans” does because of the Third Season Rule.)
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.3 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.