CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 1 of the 2016-17 season includes several solid starts for new shows, including one that surpassed expectations on Friday night.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the new methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Blue Bloods (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.78
Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.91
NCIS: Los Angeles (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.5 0.8
MacGyver (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.7 1.3
Bull (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.2 1.5
Kevin Can Wait (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.6 1.9
The Big Bang Theory 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.8 3.1
NCIS: New Orleans (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.7
NCIS (O) Renewed 2.2 1.5

 

A 1.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 is nothing to sneeze at on any night of the week. To put that kind of number up on Friday is a pretty rare thing.

But “MacGyver” did just that with its series premiere, and so it begins the season as a likely renewal. It’s just week 1, obviously, so there’s a lot more time to see where the show really lands. But it’s unquestionably in a good place right now.

The Bear is going to take a cautious approach to predictions until there’s more data in — which is also why “MacGyver” only has four bears next to its name rather than five. (“NCIS: New Orleans” does because of the Third Season Rule.)

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.3 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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