Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCBSShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Made In Jersey (F)*||canceled||0.36|
|CSI:NY (F)*||😥 😥||0.50|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.53|
|Golden Boy (one F)||😳||0.54|
|The Good Wife||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.58|
|The Mentalist||😐 😐 😐||0.65|
|Rules of Engagement||😐 😐 😐||0.96|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.05|
|Person Of Interest||1.12|
|Mike & Molly||1.15|
|How I Met Your Mother||renewed||1.31|
|2 Broke Girls||1.33|
|Two And A Half Men**||1.44|
|The Big Bang Theory||renewed||2.07|
3/20 To the surprise of only the long term comatose, CSI was renewed.
The long awaited (at least by the CBS CFO) syndication deal for The Good Wife was announced last week. Of course the financial terms in the press release were superlatively glowing, they always are.
Given that no one in public knows the detailed terms of the deal, nor the financial production details of the show, can the cancellation bear be certain the deal will get the show renewed for a fifth season? No. But without knowing any details, and needing to make a prediction eventually anyway, the bear’s willing to guess that it’s a net positive for another season, and that’s why the show is now “likely to be renewed”.
Why can’t Vegas be renewed with spring ratings almost identical to The Good Wife? Sorry Vegas fans, woeful ratings are tolerated in third and fourth season shows that are bound for syndication. Rookie shows get no such break.
That leaves The Mentalist as the only CBS drama predicted as a “toss up”. If CBS keeps its drama hours the same as they were in Fall 2012, it will likely get renewed. But if CBS either expands its sitcom time, or adds Undercover Boss to the Fall 2013 schedule, it’s getting canceled. Sadly, I have no way of judging those possibilities right now. If ever. Still, it’ll likely be in the headline next week.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the “old” Fall predictions in the table.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.