Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 7, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Cult (some F)||😳 (canceled 4/10)||0.34|
|Emily Owens, M.D.*||canceled||0.54|
|Nikita (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.61|
|Gossip Girl*||final season complete||0.61|
|The Carrie Diaries||😥 😥||0.73|
|Hart Of Dixie||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
|Beauty And The Beast||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.94|
In what may be the only real disagreement this season between the cancellation bear’s Renew/Cancel Index and Robert’s Bubble Watch, the bear is once again moving his Beauty & The Beast prediction back to “likely to be renewed”.
Three reasons why the bear’s making the move. Beauty & The Beast ratings relative to other CW scripted shows continue to hold in the 90%+ range which is typically signals “likely to be renewed” (Retentionistas may begin their howling now). As noted in previous weeks, the CW has never begun a 10 hour Fall schedule without at least six hours of “veteran” scripted shows, and canceling Beauty & The Beast would leave them with just five. Finally, Beauty & The Beast is the only 100% CBS produced show currently on the CW schedule that’s able to be renewed (Hart Of Dixie is CBS&WB). Although he doesn’t have historical records to back it up, bear guesses that joint venture quid pro quo is likely to carry at least a little decision making weight.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the “old” Fall predictions in the table.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.