Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- March 18, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Nikita (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.71|
|Hart Of Dixie||😐 😐 😐||0.80|
|Gossip Girl||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.81|
|90210||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.94|
|The Secret Circle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.05|
|One Tree Hill||final season||1.06|
After thinking about it, even given no recent noticeable change in its relative ratings, I’ve now made Gossip Girl more likely to be renewed than canceled.
Here’s my reasoning:
- It’s relative ratings index (0.81) isn’t too far from the “likely to be renewed” range for any veteran show (~0.85).
- CW has shown itself to be fond of “farewell” seasons for veteran shows (Smallville, One Tree Hill), and those two farewell seasons have been well rated by CW standards.
- The CW would have to cancel four scripted shows (not counting One Tree Hill) for Gossip Girl to be in danger, and I no longer think there is a real chance they’ll cancel that many.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.