Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2-29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hart Of Dixie 😐 😐 😐 0.64
Nikita (F) 😐 😐 😐 0.71
Gossip Girl 😐 😐 😐 0.77
90210 😐 😐 😐 0.84
Supernatural (F) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.96
The Secret Circle 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.99
One Tree Hill final season 0.99
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.63
Ringer 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 **

I never listen to what parties involved in a show (actors, writers, producers) claim in public. They either (a) know less than they think they know, or (b) are spinning to advance their agenda.

But fans are eager to believe anything positive uttered by show participants (and many online sites are happy to incite fans’ hopes, futile or not), so when the producers of Gossip Girl were in the media claiming that renewal was certain fans went into a tizzy.

I, of course, will ignore that when it comes to my predictions, but that doesn’t stop us from playing a little game that was suggested by my partner in crime.

If Gossip Girl is renewed, a higher rated CW show will likely have to be canceled instead. Which will it be?

Note: Both Hart of Dixie and Nikita are lower rated so far in 2012 than Gossip Girl, their cancellations in lieu of GG shouldn’t surprise anyone sane, so they were left out of the poll.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.


  • 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

blog comments powered by Disqus