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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Beauty And The Beast||😥 😥||0.40|
|The Carrie Diaries (F)||canceled, airing remaining episodes||0.40|
|Hart Of Dixie||0.53|
|Reign||😐 😐 😐||0.86|
|The Tomorrow People||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
The CW didn’t surprise the cancellation bear yesterday with its full season pickups of Tomorrow People, Reign and The Originals. Fans of the former two shouldn’t get too confident. The CW picked up full seasons of Ringer and The Secret Circle in Fall, 2011, and the bear caught them in May, 2012.
The lack of new episodes ordered this season for The Carrie Diaries either marks it as defacto canceled and playing out the string, similar to Life Unexpected in 2010, or certain to be canceled, depending on which version of its situation you believe.
Only 13 episodes were ordered for The Carrie Diaries this season, putting it in the same “spring show sophomore” situation as Life Unexpected in 2010. Since no more episodes were ordered yesterday, the bear counts the show as defacto canceled and playing out the string, again, just like Life Unexpected in 2010.
However, after the CW news was out yesterday many messaged the bear claiming that the CW had announced last spring that there would only be 13 episodes of Carrie this season no matter what. If true, the bear missed that announcement, because he certainly would have noted it as nonsensical at the time. It makes no sense for the CBS/WB syndication factory that is the CW to cap veteran shows at 13 episodes/season. But if that is somehow true, yesterday’s CW announcement wasn’t bad news for the show, just no news for the show, and the bear won’t argue with those who’d say the show is simply certain to be canceled in May, instead of already canceled now.
Those who’d like to note “You were wrong last year, you’ll be wrong again!” should stick around.
With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it’ll be a short one like Nikita’s, or maybe not. The bear doesn’t get into predicting episode orders.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.