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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – March 9, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita* (F) final season complete 0.30
Beauty And The Beast 😳 0.48
The Carrie Diaries* (F) 😳 0.50
Star-Crossed 😳 0.56
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.61
The Tomorrow People 😐 😐 😐 0.79
Reign renewed 0.92
The Originals renewed 1.40
Arrow renewed 1.40
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.56
Supernatural renewed 1.58

Is the cancellation bear biding his time until he sees the premiere ratings for The 100? Yes, yes he is. He considered moving The Tomorrow People down to “likely to be canceled”, but unlike his earlier editorial holding pattern on Reign (which bit him in the tail when it was renewed while the bear had it waiting as a “toss up”), there’s no chance The Tomorrow People gets canceled in the next few weeks.

As far as the headline goes, of course Beauty And The Beast is certain to be canceled. It’s been in the headline before, now the search engines get another chance at it. Cue the crazy fans who’ll let us know about their “fight”. That internet echo chamber “fight” accomplished nothing last year (when the ratings were fine, and the bear predicted it would be renewed). The bear waged a similar “fight” to get the sun to rise in the East today. Success! The same “fight” will accomplish nothing this year (when the ratings are terrible). The internet echo chamber “succeeds” by coincidence only.

However, the bear does admire the PR Jedi prowess of the CW. You yank your lowest rated show off the air in March, leave six episodes in the can unscheduled, and somehow get the TV media to refer to last night’s episode as the Winter Finale. “That’s not the low rated show burn off you were looking for. Move along, move along…”

No more “defacto canceled”: The proliferation of “limited” series, and “maybe, could be, might be, limited” series have strained the bear’s previous classification system to the limit. While the bear will reassess things in the off season, he’s decided now to remove the “defacto canceled” designation from his predictions, since they’re causing more confusion than they’re worth. They’ll just be “certain to be canceled” instead.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical).  24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.


😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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