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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – January 11, 2015):
|Hart Of Dixie||😳|
|Jane The Virgin||renewed|
The renewals of all the scripted shows currently on the CW except Hart of Dixie means several things:
- Hart of Dixie is certain to be canceled.
- The bear won’t have much to write about for CW shows until iZombie premieres on March 17, but he’ll do what he can.
- If, as now seems likely, Beauty And The Beast airs most of its episodes during the summer, like all summer shows, it is no longer any concern of the bear’s.
Here are some notes from Bubble Watch’s Tom Shaw:
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The CW, due to no Fall failures and The 100‘s longer order, didn’t need to put out a midseason schedule in December. They made up for lost time at the TCAs on Sunday. First, they announced that iZombie will get The Flash’s lead-in once The 100 is over (with Supernatural switching to Wednesdays) and The Messengers is being dumped to Fridays, with most of its episodes in Summer. Then they went and renewed their entire current Monday through Thursday lineup.
With The CW tipping their hand on Reign and Jane the Virgin by throwing The Messengers to the wolves, the only real surprise renewal was The 100’s – not because its ratings were necessarily bad, but because The CW didn’t wait to see if iZombie or any of the Spring’s pilots looked to be any better.
The conspiracy minded would wonder if, with the Tribune renegotiation on the horizon, The CW’s best play would be to have as many shows in as syndicatable a position as possible beforehand, rather than rolling the dice on any pilot that’s not a The Flash–level prospect… and I’m not even sure they’re wrong.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.