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AK's worst nightmare
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 12, 2015):

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Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Reign renewed 0.55
Hart Of Dixie* (F) canceled 0.59
The 100* renewed 0.68
Jane The Virgin renewed 0.75
The Originals renewed 0.82
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.00
iZombie 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.04
Supernatural renewed 1.06
Arrow renewed 1.51
The Flash renewed 1.94

iZombie ratings continue to hold at a 0.7, almost exactly the CW 2015 ratings average, and so the cancellation bear’s prediction for it is holding at “likely to be renewed”.

The last CW show to premiere this season, The Messengers, starts on Friday, April 17. A new chase for the bear!

Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:




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iZombie finally aired without The Flash as a lead-in… and scored the same 0.7 rating as last week. That leaves the (WB-distributed) show in very interesting territory, as it is basically tied with The Vampie Diaries as the network’s #3 rated show – but on a network with very little space to work going into next season AND too much of a WB skew to begin with. (Furthermore, according to The Futon Critic’s always informative DEVWATCH, the network’s five pilots for next season are already skewed towards the WB, 3-2, with one of those pilots being another likely-to-be-greenlit DC Comics spin-off.)

Internal politics be damned, I just can’t see a tied-for-#3 show on a network getting the axe, but this one will go down to the wire – if iZombie drops into the The Originals/The 100/Jane the Virgin muck, all bets are off.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.


😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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