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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – March 30, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita* (F) final season complete 0.30
Beauty And The Beast* 😳 0.47
The Carrie Diaries* (F) 😳 0.50
Star-Crossed 😳 0.52
Hart Of Dixie (some F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.58
The Tomorrow People 😥 😥 0.74
Reign renewed 0.93
The 100 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.24
The Originals renewed 1.36
Arrow renewed 1.40
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.56
Supernatural renewed 1.58

Last season, the cancellation bear predicted to dine on The Carrie Diaries because he figured the CW already had its recent minimum of six returning  veterans. Little did he know that Nikita’s short six episode final season required fill in from another veteran, and The Carrie Diaries survived.

This season, the CW has already renewed five shows and Hart Of Dixie is a lock for a fourth season as was Nikita (no guess from the cancellation bear how long it will be). Now with The 100 looking like a renewal candidate which would make seven 2013-14 shows renewed, even if HOD gets a short season the CW has six *more* returning scripted shows.

There’s no reason then to renew the now low rated The Tomorrow People to fill up the schedule. That combined with its recent ratings swoon makes it likely to be canceled.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical).  24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.


😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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