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AK's worst nightmare

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – April 20, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita* (F) final season complete 0.30
Beauty And The Beast* 😳 0.47
The Carrie Diaries* (F) 😳 0.50
Star-Crossed 😳 0.54
Hart Of Dixie (some F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.56
The Tomorrow People 😥 😥 0.77
Reign renewed 0.92
The 100 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.05
The Originals renewed 1.40
Arrow renewed 1.42
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.57
Supernatural renewed 1.60

Given that the cancellation bear is predicting all the shows in the headline are headed for his dinner table, the desperate fans are opt to wail “The CW can’t cancel that many shows!”, or “Four shows is too many! They only canceled three last season!”.

Unlike those desperate fans, the bear’s predictions are focused on how many shows the CW needs to renew. Last season the CW renewed seven shows, squeezing in ratings loser The Carrie Diaries to take up schedule space because they knew (and the bear did not) that they were only giving a six episode order to Nikita. The season before the CW renewed six shows. The season before that they renewed six shows.

With five shows already renewed, and Hart of Dixie a certainty, the CW could renew The 100 as the bear is predicting and again have the wiggle room in the schedule to give Hart Of Dixie a short episode order if they wanted to and have no need to renew any other shows.

Final predictions from the bear, which likely will be no different than today’s predictions, are coming on May 6.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical).  24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.


😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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