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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Nikita (F)||final season||0.27|
|Beauty And The Beast||😥 😥||0.40|
|The Carrie Diaries (F)||de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes||0.40|
|Hart Of Dixie||0.54|
|Reign||😐 😐 😐||0.90|
|The Tomorrow People||😐 😐 😐||0.92|
The cancellation bear long ago took The Originals off his potential menu this season. The other two Fall premiere rookies Reign & The Tomorrow People will vie for one or two remaining rookie renewals with the mid-season shows The 100 & Star-Crossed.
Given the CW’s recent history of premiering 3 rookie shows each Fall, in order to renew more than one more of the 2013-14 rookie group, either America’s Next Top Model would need to air entirely in summer 2014, or the fourth season of Hart of Dixie would need to premiere in mid-season. The bear doesn’t view either of those alternatives as being out of the question, so two renewals from that group are conceivably possible, but until Spring, the bear’s not likely to be able to predict which.
Interestingly, last season the CW announced its mid-season schedule on November 8. By that standard, they’re long overdue. That schedule is likely to contain some moves central to the bear’s future dining plans.
Why is The Carrie Diaries defacto canceled?
Fall premiere shows that receive a 13 episode order (veteran or rookie), and no follow on episodes are canceled. (note, Life Unexpected). There will be no announcement, as always, except the fact that it’s left off the schedule announced in May.
Why is Hart Of Dixie certain to be renewed?
With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it’ll be a short one like Nikita’s, or maybe not. The bear doesn’t get into predicting episode orders.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.