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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – March 9, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Raising Hope (F) canceled 0.44
Enlisted (F) 😳 0.49
The Mindy Project* renewed 0.72
Glee renewed 0.74
Rake 😳 0.75
Dads* 😳 0.83
Brooklyn Nine-Nine renewed 0.96
New Girl renewed 1.04
Bones (F) renewed 1.07
Almost Human* 😥 😥 1.16
The Following renewed 1.17
Bob’s Burgers renewed 1.22
Sleepy Hollow* renewed 1.27
American Dad final season on Fox 1.41
The Simpsons renewed 1.52
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.68

Timing is everything. The cancellation bear moved The Mindy Project to “likely to be canceled” last week, Fox renewed the show three days later. The bear’s first  swing and miss on a cancellation prediction this season. It won’t be the last.

The bear is amused by the commenters claiming “things have to change!”, “the system is broken!”. The bear misses a handful of calls each year. He’s fine with that. A lot more work might improve that, but it might not, and the bear’s not interested in doing the work to find out.

There was no news about Almost Human last week, and in this case, no news is bad news. Is it conceivable the show still gets renewed? Yes. Is it likely? No. Hence the prediction change.

Sadly, the weekly Fox prediction posts are going to get pretty boring from now on. Just wait for “Of Course, Family Guy Is Certain To Be Renewed” next week.

No more “defacto canceled”: The proliferation of “limited” series, and “maybe, could be, might be, limited” series have strained the bear’s previous classification system to the limit. While the bear will reassess things in the off season, he’s decided now to remove the “defacto canceled” designation from his predictions and simply label them “certain to be canceled” to halt the endless questions. In addition, he’s changed his “canceled” label for Rake to simply “certain to be canceled” for similar reasons.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear.  If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical).  24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.


😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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