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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 12, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Glee (F)||final season||0.40|
|The Mindy Project*||0.56|
|Red Band Society*||canceled||0.61|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.70|
|The Following||😥 😥||0.71|
|The Last Man On Earth||renewed||0.98|
Bones ratings are bumping along at their series low, and are at just 70% of Fox’s scripted ratings average in 2015. Even for a veteran show, that’s typically in the cancellation bear’s “likely canceled” prediction range.
Unlike similarly low-rated The Following, Bones is produced by Fox, which the bear figures gives it reasonable chance for renewal, if the actors can be signed to new contracts. In these cases, the bear assumes that the contracts get signed, because that usually, but not always, happens.
Why is The Mindy Project certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:
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Last Man on Earth was renewed by Fox this week. The show has dropped into the low to mid 1s (albeit with repeats or out-of-slot programs for lead-ins), so I’m still wondering if this won’t turn out to be another Resurrection, where the average covers up a relatively ugly trend.
(The more interesting question is what happens with Bordertown? With Bob’s Burgers likely to stay at 7:30, does Fox move one of the live-actions off the night? Or does Last Man only get a 13 episode initial order, with Bordertown ready to swoop in for Spring if Last Man continues to fall?)
Fun fact: Did you know Backstrom was still on the air? It’s true!
All sarcasm aside, that Fox has given Backstrom this much rope to hang itself with (surely they could have ginned up some form of American Idol recap show for Thursdays) apparently solely due to the Hart Hanson name makes me relatively convinced that Fox can come to terms with Hanson for one more season of Bones. I wouldn’t bet on the number of episodes, or when in the year it is scheduled, but I do expect it to come back next season.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.