Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewFOXShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
polar-bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – January 18, 2015):

v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
x:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);}

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Mulaney canceled 0.37
Glee (F) final season 0.39
Gracepoint* canceled 0.53
The Mindy Project :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.54
Red Band Society* canceled 0.61
Sleepy Hollow 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.78
New Girl 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.80
Bob’s Burgers renewed 0.86
Backstrom 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.02
Brooklyn Nine-Nine renewed 1.02
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Gotham renewed 1.26
The Simpsons renewed 1.44
Empire renewed 2.18
Bones 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂


Followers of the Cancellation Bear know that he often refers to the “Syndication Gods” as guaranteeing renewal for certain shows. But which shows?

The Guarantee of the Syndication Gods:

  • In recent memory (since Veronica Mars in 2007), every regular season broadcast scripted show that has completed three seasons of at least 66 episodes total has been renewed for a fourth season.

Why? There’s certainly an element of “in for a penny, in for a pound” that comes with a full third season renewal, but it really doesn’t matter to the bear. He’s a pattern recognition predator, and that’s as solid a pattern as any he has to identify prey (or in this case, “not prey”).

What does that mean for Brooklyn Nine-Nine which was recently renewed for season 3?

If Brooklyn Nine-Nine gets a 22 episode season three order (the number of episodes is currently unknown to the bear), it’s guaranteed a season four renewal, since it will have 66 episodes.

The premiere ratings for Backstrom start it enough ahead of the bear to make his initial prediction “likely renewed”. Its ratings could fall ~15% and still be safe, any more than that and expect a prediction downgrade next week.

Past weeks:

But Entertainment Weekly, TV Guide & The Hollywood Reporter said there was a chance for a second season of Red Band Society, how could it be canceled? Read this.

Why is The Mindy Project certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.

How can Mulaney be canceled when it’s still on the air? Read this.

Wondering about Gracepoint being canceled despite its “limited series” status? Read this. (Now officially canceled).

Here are some notes from Bubble Watch’s Tom Shaw:

Normal
0

false
false
false

EN-US
JA
X-NONE

/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:”Table Normal”;
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-parent:””;
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin-top:0in;
mso-para-margin-right:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;
mso-para-margin-left:0in;
line-height:115%;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}

Normal
0

false
false
false

EN-US
JA
X-NONE

/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:”Table Normal”;
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-parent:””;
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin-top:0in;
mso-para-margin-right:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;
mso-para-margin-left:0in;
line-height:115%;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}

Nothing new from Tom this week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV BTN

blog comments powered by Disqus