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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – March 22, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Glee (F)||final season||0.37|
|The Mindy Project||0.56|
|Red Band Society*||canceled||0.61|
|The Following||😥 😥||0.71|
|The Last Man On Earth||1.05|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂|
Two weeks of 1.1 ratings for The Following show that the first was no fluke. Without a new episode of Gotham propping it up, its ratings are into the cancellation bear’s “likely to be canceled” territory.
Compare that to (now renewed) Sleepy Hollow, which followed a new episode of Gotham every
single time but once this season. In that one episode not following a new Gotham it scored a 1.5 rating.
“Unfair!” cry aggrieved The Following fans. “Fox produced (Sleepy Hollow) vs. Warner Brothers produced (The Following)” replies the bear.
After four weeks of renewal worthy ratings, the bear has elevated his prediction for The Last Man On Earth to “certain to be renewed”.
The observant will note that New Girl’s prediction has also been moved to “certain to be renewed”. While the bear will wait for a Fox renewal announcement before noting it as “renewed”, credible reports that season 5 filming has already begun (to schedule around the lead’s pregnancy) are all the bear needed to make a change.
While the bear’s predictions of next season’s timeslots aren’t worth the bits used to transmit them to you, he wouldn’t be surprised at all to see The Mindy Project in the intermittently used early Sunday timeslot next season.
Why is The Mindy Project certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:Sleepy Hollow was indeed renewed for another (weird for syndication purposes*) 18 episode order. For all of the successes Fox has had this year, they still have a number of timeslots that are old, low rated, or both (The Following, Backstrom, Bones) and no announced reality show to fill Utopia‘s hours this Fall. Options like Sleepy Hollow are by no means the worst case scenario for them.
(*Again, the syndication gods only kick in at ~66 episodes. Sleepy Hollow will only be at a mere 49 at the end of next season.)
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.