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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – March 15, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Glee (F)||final season||0.38|
|The Mindy Project||0.58|
|Red Band Society*||canceled||0.61|
|The Following||😐 😐 😐||0.78|
|New Girl||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.79|
|Sleepy Hollow*||😐 😐 😐||0.81|
|The Last Man On Earth||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.11|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂|
With no new episode of Gotham to prop it up, The Following ratings dove to just a 1.1 rating in episode two. The cancellation bear will give it a week as a “toss up” to make sure that wasn’t a fluke before moving his prediction down again if it wasn’t.
Why is The Mindy Project certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:
I said last week that Fox was making The Following fend for itself – and the result was the show dropped over 30% from its premiere. Again, the real question is how low WB will go for a renewal – but ~15 more episodes for a show only halfway to syndication makes no sense to our view of how the business works.
The Following’s loss could be Sleepy Hollow’s gain, as Sleepy Hollow lost its showrunner this week. That’s actually a positive to its renewal chances – a producer doesn’t demand changes to a show it has already written off – though the on-the-screen results may not please the audience it currently has, with no guarantee the old audience will come back.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.