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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – March 8, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Glee (F)||final season||0.38|
|The Mindy Project||0.60|
|Red Band Society*||canceled||0.61|
|New Girl||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.79|
|Sleepy Hollow*||😐 😐 😐||0.81|
|The Following||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93|
|The Last Man On Earth||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.22|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂|
The premiere ratings in the return of The Following were good enough to keep it out of the cancellation bear’s immediate grasp.
Predicting the future of Fox’s two limited series (The Following, Sleepy Hollow) carries with it an extra complicating factor.
What if Fox decides to get out of the limited series business altogether?
What if dribbling out limited seasons of any scripted shows (let alone two marginally rated ones) just isn’t worth the trouble. It’s certainly possible, although the bear has no good way to factor that into his predictions. He’ll continue predicting as if Fox would replace any canceled limited series with another one, but that just may be bear tunnel blindness talking.
Why is The Mindy Project certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:
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The Following returned to the usual mid-1s it was seeing last season. Fox is clearly demanding The Following make its own case for renewal, giving it a month of Gotham repeats for a lead-in, opposite Peak Voice. Add in the behind –the-scenes issues, and I am less than certain of a renewal, but who knows how low WB will go on the price to get one more season in.
(A reminder: this may be The Following’s third season, but a fourth season is not guaranteed. The Following will only be at 45 episodes at season’s end, literally years away from the ~66 episodes that all but guarantees another season. This renewal, if there is one, will likely go down to the wire.)
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.