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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – March 1, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Glee (F)||final season||0.38|
|The Mindy Project||0.60|
|Red Band Society*||canceled||0.61|
|New Girl||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.80|
|Sleepy Hollow*||😐 😐 😐||0.81|
|The Last Man On Earth||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.34|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂|
The premiere ratings for The Last Man On Earth put it well ahead of the cancellation bear. Considering the woeful state of Fox sitcom ratings, even a 30% decline would mean renewal. More than that, and the situation will get interesting.
As always, ratings changes can produce prediction changes. Stay tuned.
Why is The Mindy Project certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:
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Last Man on Earth started off well (especially given the downright ugly low 1s Fox’s block has seen since NFL games ended). The question remains, how will the show – and the ratings – hold up over time.
Sleepy Hollow ended in the same mid-1 territory it’s been stuck in (to a lesser extent) since January. Since Fox has not yet announced any multi-hour reality project for Fall, I’d still barely lean towards renewal, but there is an incentive for Fox to end the (still an eternity away from syndication) show: Walden & Newman can still blame the show’s demise on Reilly killing any momentum by not ordering more episodes back in Season 1. If they give it another ~13 episodes next season before it sputters out, then the cancellation is on their heads.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.