Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewFOXShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from September 15-November 16, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Red Band Society||😳||0.61|
|The Mindy Project||0.66|
|New Girl||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.82|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.87|
|Bob’s Burgers||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.90|
Sometimes the Syndication Gods work in strange and mysterious ways, but often they follow easy to read patterns. In recent memory, when a show gets at least 66 episodes through 3 seasons, the Gods guarantee a fourth season. The Mindy Project received an order for 6 additional episodes, bringing this season’s order to 21, and the show’s three season total to 67 episodes. The cancellation bear has now changed his prediction for the show to “certain to be renewed”. Far be it from the bear to go against the Gods.
Wait, how can Mulaney be canceled when it’s still on the air? Read this.
Wondering about Gracepoint and its cancellation prediction despite its “limited series” status? Read this.
While we wait for the return of Bubble Watch, here are some Fox notes from Tom Shaw:
The Mindy Project and I have a contentious history; as such I wasn’t going to rush to any conclusions on whether its 61 episodes were more likely to fall into the “57 and done” or the “66 and guaranteed more” buckets. Fox answered that question for us by ordering 6 more episodes for this season; as such, syndication economics virtually guarantee a fourth season as well.–
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.