|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||—|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||—|
|Sleepy Hollow (O)||😐 😐 😐||—|
The 2015-16 TV season has just begun, and already there are sure bets for renewal? Yes, there are, and here’s why: Money.
It’s a near-ironclad rule of broadcast TV that if a show will end its third season with 66 episodes (give or take one or two) under its belt, and it’s produced by the sister studio of the network where it airs, then it will be renewed for a fourth season. Media conglomerates make more money selling 88 episodes of a show into syndication than they do with 66 episodes, thus the incentive to keep rolling into a fourth year.
“Brooklyn Nine-Nine” is entering its third season on FOX and has a full complement of episodes. But because it’s produced by Universal and not network sibling 20th Century Fox TV, it can’t be put into the sure bet category just yet.
“Sleepy Hollow,” meanwhile, has the opposite problem. It is produced by 20th Century Fox, so corporate synergy could come into play. But after Season 3, it will still only have 49 episodes under its belt — meaning it would need two additional seasons to reach the traditional syndication threshold of 80-plus episodes. The way ratings slid last year, it’s tough to call it more than a tossup at the outset.
Better to follow the Bear than be chased by him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why Live+Same Day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.