FOX network scripted average through Sept. 27 (one week): 2.06
|Program||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Minority Report (O)||😦 😦||1.1||0.53|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.2||0.58|
|Sleepy Hollow (O)||😐 😐 😐||n/a||n/a|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.4||0.68|
|Family Guy (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.5||0.73|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.5||0.73|
|Gotham||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.6||0.78|
|Scream Queens (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.7||0.83|
|Rosewood (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||2.4||1.17|
|Empire (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||6.7||3.25|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.5||0.73|
*Updated to include 0.1 downward adjustments for “Bob’s Burgers” and “The Last Man on Earth.”
The easiest prediction you’ll see made in this space all season is a renewal for “Empire,” the highest-rated show on TV not involving men tossing a football around. But it also makes the crystal ball that much muddier for its FOX brethren.
“Empire’s” massive 18-49 rating skews the network’s average for the week by more than half a point. Hence the plethora of smiley faces for shows with otherwise unimpressive numbers: Take away that one monster, and they’re right in line with the rest of the schedule.
On the flip side, a 1.1 for your debut is weak no matter how you slice it. “Minority Report” had the smallest premiere number of any new series last week.
Better to follow the Bear than be chased by him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why Live+Same Day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.