FOX scripted average through Dec. 13: 1.52
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Minority Report (O)||Canceled||0.71||0.47|
|Sleepy Hollow (O)||😦 😦||0.91||0.60|
|The Grinder (O)||😐 😐 😐||0.91||0.60|
|Grandfathered (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.06||0.70|
|Scream Queens (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.06||0.70|
|Bones (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.14||0.75|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.28||0.84|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.53||1.01|
|Family Guy (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.54||1.01|
|Rosewood (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.63||1.07|
|Gotham||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.51||0.99|
|Empire (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||4.77||3.14|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.1||0.72|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||2.04||1.34|
Thanks to the third-season rule*, “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” started this season as a safe bet for renewal. So far it’s held up fine, running just above FOX’s scripted-show average.
(*Which states that any show entering its third full season is very likely to be renewed for a fourth, since the 80-plus episodes in four full seasons is a syndication benchmark. Shows produced by a network’s sister studio are virtual locks; “Nine-Nine” comes from Universal rather than 20th Century Fox, so it’s not quite a sure thing.)
Its numbers are going to drop some when the show moves to Tuesday nights in January, but barring a total collapse, it should still be fine.
“Nine-Nine’s” average on Sundays when FOX doesn’t have the late-afternoon NFL game spilling into primetime is 1.3. Anywhere close to that on Tuesdays — heck, even a couple tenths below it — should ensure a renewal.
“New Girl,” which will lead off Tuesdays, averaged a 1.3 last season. “Grandfathered” and “The Grinder” are both hovering around 1.0. In that climate, and with Universal likely willing to make a deal to get into the syndication sweet spot, low 1s for “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” should be enough.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.