FOX network scripted average through Oct. 4 (two weeks): 1.85
|Program||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Minority Report (O)||😥||1||0.54|
|Sleepy Hollow (O)||😦 😦||1||0.54|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.2||0.65|
|Bones (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.4||0.76|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.45||0.78|
|Scream Queens (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.55||0.84|
|Family Guy (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.6||0.86|
|Gotham||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.6||0.86|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.7||0.92|
|Rosewood (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||2.2||1.19|
|Empire (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||6.1||3.3|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||2.1||1.13|
Oct. 7: Index updated to reflect the two-season renewal for “Bob’s Burgers.”
Coming into this season, “Sleepy Hollow” didn’t have enough episodes under its belt to make the fourth-season syndication guarantee a sure bet. In other words, it still had to perform.
At least for its premiere, it … did not. The 1.0 for the season opener is exactly half of last season’s debut, and it’s down 0.4 from the Season 2 finale as well.
“Bones,” meanwhile, did its usual “Bones” thing on Thursday, landing it in the middle of the network pack. It’s in tossup territory now, not least because of indications from both the network and star David Boreanaz that this season could be it for the series.
Better to follow the Bear than be chased by him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.