FOX scripted average through Feb. 21: 1.43
FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 22 of the 2015-16 season, and why there may be a chance yet for a couple of lower-rated series.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Minority Report (O)||Canceled||0.71||0.47|
|Second Chance (O)||😥||0.77||0.54|
|The Grinder (O)||😦 😦||0.83||0.58|
|Sleepy Hollow (O)||😦 😦||0.88||0.62|
|Bordertown (O)||😦 😦||1.04||0.73|
|Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life (O)||😦 😦||1.22||0.85|
|Grandfathered (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.0||0.70|
|Bones (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.14||0.80|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.28||0.90|
|New Girl (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.34||0.94|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.36||0.95|
|Family Guy (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.55||1.08|
|Rosewood (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.63||1.14|
|Lucifer||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.93||1.35|
|Gotham||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.51||1.06|
|Scream Queens (O)||Renewed||1.06||0.70|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.08||0.76|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||2.06||1.44|
If ever there were a time and place to be a marginally rated broadcast series, this season on FOX might be it.
In 2016-17, the network will have to think about scheduling the way it hasn’t in more than a decade thanks to the departure of “American Idol.” That’s 40 or so hours of programming that FOX will have to fill — which could mean that a couple of shows that might otherwise disappear could get some more run.
So let’s take a look at the current dramas that could, hypothetically, help FOX patch together its schedule next season. (We’re only talking dramas here as FOX’s comedy track record of late doesn’t make another night of comedies any kind of good bet.)
“Second Chance”: Nope.
“Sleepy Hollow”: On the plus side, FOX owns it, and it hasn’t fallen too far since moving to Friday. But for now it’s staying as a likely cancellation, since it also hasn’t sniffed 1.0 since that “Bones” crossover. Speaking of …
“Bones”: Under normal circumstances, the Bear would have moved the show (on hiatus till April) into safe territory by now. But when one of your executive producers and both your leads are suing the network and and its sister studio, that’s a reason not to move off tossup for now.
“Rosewood” and “Lucifer”: The perception (possibly a very correct one — we’ll find out in the next few weeks) is that they’re propped up by the shows airing before or after them: “Empire” for “Rosewood” and “The X-Files” for “Lucifer.” But the fact is both are performing above FOX’s scripted average for the season. Barring utter collapse in the back half of their runs, they’ll likely be back.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.