FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 26 of the 2015-16 season comes to the conclusion that “steady” isn’t enough for one of the network’s borderline shows.
FOX scripted average through March 20: 1.37
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Minority Report (O)||Canceled||0.71||0.47|
|Second Chance (O)||😥||0.66||0.48|
|The Grinder (O)||😦 😦||0.79||0.58|
|Sleepy Hollow (O)||😦 😦||0.85||0.62|
|Bordertown (O)||😦 😦||1.0||0.73|
|Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life (O)||😦 😦||1.1||0.80|
|Grandfathered (O)||😐 😐 😐||0.97||0.71|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.25||0.91|
|New Girl (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.27||0.93|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.27||0.93|
|Rosewood (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.46||1.07|
|Lucifer||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.63||1.19|
|Family Guy (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.53||1.12|
|Scream Queens (O)||Renewed||1.06||0.70|
Since moving to Fridays in February, “Sleepy Hollow” has averaged a 0.79 rating in adults 18-49, down from the 0.91 in had in its Thursday slot earlier in the season.
That’s not a terrible, or even unexpected, drop for a show moving to Friday. It’s also not a case for “Sleepy Hollow” to earn a fourth season.
Even if you take FOX at its word that it only looks at delayed ratings — which we don’t, but just for the sake of argument — the show’s prospects don’t improve. The only FOX dramas it outrates are the already canceled “Minority Report” and all-but-done “Second Chance.”
That doesn’t add up to much.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.