FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 28 of the 2015-16 season puts a couple of shows in the certain cancellation column after they put up sub-replacement ratings with their most recent episodes.
FOX scripted average through April 3: 1.34
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Minority Report (O)||Canceled||0.71||0.47|
|Second Chance (O)||😥||0.65||0.49|
|The Grinder (O)||😦 😦||0.79||0.59|
|Sleepy Hollow (O)||😦 😦||0.83||0.62|
|Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life (O)||😥||1.01||0.75|
|Grandfathered (O)||😐 😐 😐||0.97||0.72|
|New Girl (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.22||0.91|
|Rosewood (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.43||1.07|
|Lucifer||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.58||1.18|
|Family Guy (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.54||1.15|
|Scream Queens (O)||Renewed||1.06||0.70|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.05||0.78|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||Renewed||1.22||0.91|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.91||1.43|
The odds of renewal for “Bordertown” “Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life” have never been great. But after last week, there is just about no chance they’ll be back.
Both shows scored disastrous 0.4 ratings in the 7 o’clock hour on Sunday. FOX as a whole was off on Sunday, but even in this ratings era, a Big Four network can’t tolerate numbers like that for first-run episodes for any length of time.
FOX won’t either, so “Cooper Barrett” and “Bordertown” are headed for one-and-done status.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.